Sunday, March 4, 2012

The fellow in charge of the PAC feasiability study teaches "Decision Support"

A decision support system (DSS) is a computer-based information system
that supports business or organizational decision-making activities.

A properly designed DSS is an interactive software-based system
intended to help decision makers compile useful information
from a combination of raw data, documents, personal knowledge, or business models
to identify and solve problems and make decisions.

Typical information that a decision support application
might gather and present are:

...inventories of information assets
(including legacy and relational data sources, cubes, data warehouses, and data marts),
comparative sales figures between one period and the next,
projected revenue figures based on product sales assumptions.


"… a "Monte Carlo" simulation, commonly used in [economic feasibility studies]
estimates the odds of reaching [financial sustainability] goals.

Though these tools
typically run through hundreds or thousands of potential market scenarios,
they often assign minuscule odds to [failure].

that the "non-biased" Performing Arts Center Task Force hired
to find out whether or not building the PAC makes sense or not

Yet these extreme events seem to be happening more often.

If causes, actions or winners have effects, reactions or losers
and A is caused, allowed, accelerated, held back or prevented
is it better to pre-think what could happen to B, C and D
than not?

The questions about Monte Carlo [economic feasibility studies]
reflect broader concerns about mathematical models
for gauging [economic feasibility for Greensboro's PAC]

These models were supposed to help quantify and manage ...risk

If achievement takes less time with a rational plan
can you get farther faster than those without
and vice versa? appears that the models often gave [decision makers]
...a false sense of security [especially if those presenting the study may profit?]

Critics emphasize that the problem isn't Monte Carlo itself
but the assumptions that go into it

If some financial estimates and hypothetical illustrations
assume perpetual levels of varying data
can probabilities for Greensboro's PAC be manipulated?

Since no standard approach exists
one user might plug in a range of assumptions on interest rates
inflation [demographics, attendance, profitability, revenues, economic benefit]
or volatility that is different from another user

hire what some believe looks like a biased,
rent seeking "consultant" to study feasibility?

Some industry participants and academics
are pushing for Monte Carlo tools to more clearly illustrate
the scarier scenarios"

Eleanor Laise
Wall Street Journal

If there are at least 15,000 professional American Economists
and less than 1% foresaw the financial crisis
and many mathematical based financial prognostications were relatively useless,
which if left in place could negatively affect the future
should some try to fix what’s probably broken
instead of continuing to use what has proven to be a failed barometer, system, etc...
like what looks to be utilized to convince Greensboro's voters of the PAC,
that has been used to convince others of what isn't?

Really the question is:
How stupid are the majority of Greensboro's residents?

1 comment:

W.E. Heasley said...

Dear TriadWatch:

News flash for Steven A. Wolff and AMS: the study has already been done!

Cancel the contract, save the money, as the most comprehensive of all studies has already been completed.

The free market is a very efficient item in that it supplies what consumers and firms demand. That is, those goods and services that are valued [revealed consumer preference] are supplied by the market. Conversely, those items that have little or no revealed consumer preference are not supplied as a wide range of consumers or firms assign little value to such good or service.

Given the above, exactly where is the current performing arts center? Correct, there is no current performing arts center. The free market supplies no such performing arts center as no revealed consumer preference exists hence no performing arts center.

No demand, no supply. What a novel idea!