Monday, July 25, 2011

Some Economic Geopolitical Debt Ceiling and Europe Thoughts from George Hartzman’s Brain

If North Carolina’s State Government is going to layoff about 11,000 employees,
not counting city and county reductions,
and about 20,000 public sector jobs get eliminated in NC over the next six months,
x 50 other states,
could the US lose at least 1,000,000 job losses in the near term
causing even higher budget deficits across the board?

If the fed debt limit deal, which could be 3 to 4 trillion over 10 years,
cuts about $100 to 250 billion in the first year,
because they will most likely back load most of the most painful cuts,
and every $100 billion cut probably eliminates about 1.3 million more jobs,
could the US lose another 2.3 million jobs inside of 12 months
not counting multiplier effects from businesses dependent on other people’s income?

If the US hasn’t sold any new debt since mid May 2011,
and the Federal Reserve stopped printing to buy Treasuries in June 2011,
what could happen to interest rates
if the US Treasury needs to sell more than $750 billion more debt,
or about $150 billion of new debt per month in the last five months of 2011,
on top of what the rest of the world wants to borrow?

If Federal, State and Local Governments cut spending by $1 trillion,
and our nation’s GDP is about $14 trillion,
which could cause at least another $500 billion less spending elsewhere,
why wouldn’t the US suffer about a 10% fall in GDP
as Europe does the same thing at the same time?

How can Germany, France, Italy and Spain continue to bailout Euro zone countries
if Italy and Spain need to be bailed out?


polifrog said...

Does government spending truly add to GDP?

Would lowering taxes commensurate or nearly commensurate with reductions in government expenditures alleviate the issue?

Bubba Near said...

Ah, but everyone knows that tax cuts NEVER provide growth. Only government spending does.

"Experts" like Cone and Brod are constantly telling us that, so it must be true, right?

Taxpayer said...

Speaking of debt, would love to get you thoughts on that latest tax payer waste taking place at Guilford County Schools.

Abner Doon said...

Government spending is part of GDP.

"Would lowering taxes commensurate or nearly commensurate with reductions in government expenditures alleviate the issue?"

No. Simple arithmatic.

On a laffer curve, we have entered the era of diminishing returns relative to lower taxes.

GCS and Guilford County need to stop borrowing to build schools.