Key observations are 1) the divergence of OECD and non-OECD since 2005,
the non-OECD going up in the world, the OECD going down
and 2) a hint that OECD petroleum consumption is once again turning down.
The recent trend in US petroleum products consumption
lends strength to the notion of declining demand in important parts of the OECD.
...If the spare capacity does in fact exist,
then it must be of sour and heavy grades of crude
that cannot substitute for the loss of 1.6 mmbpd light sweet crude from Libya.
...Note that demand for petroleum products has fallen by >1mmbpd in the US alone so far this year.
Our speculative reading of the current situation
...is that a second recessionary dip may already be underway
in certain oil importing OECD countries"
The Green Dump
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development