Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Downtown Hotel Math Myths: If total Greensboro occupancy stays the same…

If total Greensboro hotel occupancy stays the same city wide,
and a new publicly subsidized 180 room downtown hotel
reaches a projected stabilized 60% occupancy rate at $188.68 per night;

180 x 60% = 108 occupied rooms / 365 days per year

108 rooms x 365 days = 19,440 rooms per year

19,440 rooms per year x $188.68 = $3,667,939.20 room revenue per year

Could Guilford County Commissioners vote to remove and transfer $3,667,939.20 of revenue
directly out of the pockets of privately owned hotels
into the pockets of the "owners" of a publicly subsidized venture?
If expected food and beverage per occupied room;

$127.88 (food) + $41.41 (beverage) = $169.29

$169.29 x 19,440 rooms per year = $3,290,997.60 food and beverage per year
Will $3,290,997.60 of revenue
come directly out of the pockets of privately owned eateries and caterers
not counting new competition from the Greensboro Coliseum's soon to be publicly owned
VIP room?
Page 40 of 44
Are these numbers,
presented by the same company that rejected the hotel less than a month before,
even remotely based on any kind of reality?
How could an analysis recieved by the City of Greensboro on January 18, 2010
be so different from an analysis performed on February 16, 2010?
Should the the projected food and beverage revenues of of $115.93
in the January 18, 2010 analysis
be three times higher than the Downtown Marriott?
Page 29 of 53
If average food and beverage revenues in the January 18, 2010 analysis
for comparable downtown hotels in large cities ranged from $75.54 to $92.28,
how can the February 16, 2010 analysis project food and beverage revenues
of $169.29?
Page 26 of 53
How could projected food and beverage revenue rise
from $115.93 on February 16th,
to $169.29 on January 18th?
Page 23 of 53
How can HVS believably assert
that occupancy is now projected to rise %20 with %10 fewer rooms
inside of a month?
Page 20 of 53
Sometimes I wonder
whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on,
or by imbeciles who really mean it.

Mark Twain

1 comment:

Fec said...

How? Easy. You work backward from the numbers the client wants to see. It's all bullshit.